ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. There is sudden need of statistical modeling due to onset of COVID-19 pandemic across the world. But health planning and policy requirements need the estimates of disease problem from clinical data. OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to predict the declination of COVID-19 using recovery rate and case load rate on basis of available data from India. METHODS: The reported COVID-19 cases in the country were obtained from website (https://datahub.io/core/covid-19#resource-covid-19_zip/). The confirmed cases, recovered cases and deaths were used for estimating recovery rate, case load rate and death rate till June 04, 2020. RESULTS: A total of 216919 confirmed cases were reported nationwide in India on June 04, 2020. It is found that the recovery rate increased to 47.99% and case load rate decreased to 49.21%. Death rate is found to be very low 2.80%. Accordingly, coincidence of the difference of case load rate and recovery rate (delta) will reveal a declination in expected COVID-19 cases. CONCLUSION: The epidemic in the country was mainly caused by the movement of people from various foreign countries to India. Lockdown as restricting the migration of population and decision taken by the government to quarantine the population may greatly reduce the risk of continued spread of the epidemic in India. This study predicts that when the case load rate gets lesser than recovery rate, there after COVID-19 patients would be started to decline.
ABSTRACT
As the COVID-19 pandemic marches exponentially, epidemiological data is of high importance to analyse the current situation and guide intervention strategies. This study analyses the epidemiological data of COVID-19 from 17 countries, representing 85 per cent of the total cases within first 90 days of lockdown in Wuhan, China. It follows a population-level observational study design and includes countries with 20,000 cases (or higher) as of 21 April 2020. We sourced the data for these 17 countries from worldometers. info, a digital platform being used by several media and reputed academic institutions worldwide. We calculated the prevalence, incidence, case fatality rate and trends in the epidemiology of COVID-19, and its correlation with population density, urbanisation and elderly population. The analysis represents 85 per cent (N= 2,183,661) of all cases within the first 90 days of the pandemic. Across the analysed period, the burden of the pandemic primarily focused on high- and middle-income countries of Asia, Europe and North America. While the total number of cases and deaths are highest in USA, the prevalence, incidence and case fatality rates are higher in the European countries. The prevalence and incidence vary widely among countries included in the analysis, and the number of cases per million and the case fatality rate are correlated with the proportion of the elderly population and to a lesser extent with the proportion of the urban population.